Sample listening summary

Here is the link for a presentation  by Hans Rosling on population growth.

Brussels, 22 October 2010

Report on Hans Rosling's 2010 TED Talk on the Global Population Growth

The periods analysed are as follows:

·      The situation in 1960;

·      The evolution between 1960 and 2010;

·      The possible trend up till 2050.

1. Situation in 1960

In 1960, the 3 bn people living on our planet were categorised as follows:

·      1 bn in the so-called industrialised world, characterised by good educational levels and high consumption aspirations, such as having cars and household appliances;

·      2 bn in 'developing countries' with basic aspirations, such as having enough food and clothing.

The gap between the two groups was enormous, which was captured by the expression 'the West and the rest'.

2. Evolution between 1960 and 2010

The population has more than doubled and a third category of 'emerging economies' has appeared, so that the present situation is the following:

·      1 bn in the part of the industrialised world now referred to as 'developed countries' with even higher consumption aspirations;

·      4 bn in emerging economies with lower consumption aspirations;

·      2 bn in developing countries still with basic aspirations.

The distance between the first and the third group has dramatically increased.

3. Possible trend until 2050

The population will increase by 2 bn and stabilise at 9 bn. The following distribution amongst the three groups can thus materialise:

·      2 bn in developed countries;

·      3 bn in emerging economies;

·      4 bn in developing countries.

In order to provide a possible explanation for the demographic explosion in the third group, the speaker identified an inverse correlation between child mortality and family planning through an animated graph showing the trends between 1960 and 2008, i.e., the smaller the families are, the higher child survival tends to be as it is in developed countries, and vice versa as it is in developing countries.

4. Conclusion

The only way to stop population growth seems to be raising the average global child survival to at least 90 % while improving environmental conditions. 'The Old West' is to serve as the foundation of such a 'New World'.